Prediction of rice productivity in Kandhamal district of Orissa using simulation modeling

摘要

Simulation technique has been employed to predict rice yield of Kandhamal plateaus in Orissa (India) using the data of previous years. Preliminary simulation model has been developed The test for uniformity and independence has been conducted using Kolmogrov-smironov test and auto-correlation test, respectively. The result obtained has been subjected to testing of hypothesis by using two sided test. Data for five years (1995 to 2000) are used for model validation and the sample size is increased to 12 years i.e., from 1995 to 2007 for prediction up to 2012. Sensitivity analysis is conducted by changing the parameters within feasible limits to find out the effect on the model.