A multi-level splitting algorithm based on differential evolution

摘要

Multi-level splitting algorithm is a famous rare event simulation (RES) method which reaches rare set through splitting samples during simulation. Since choosing sample paths is a key factor of the method, this paper embeds differential evolution in multi-level splitting mechanism to improve the sampling strategy and precision, so as to improve the algorithm efficiency. Examples of rare event probability estimation demonstrate that the new proposed algorithm performs well in convergence rate and precision for a set of benchmark cases. Rare event simulation; multi-level splitting; differential evolution