REWRITING THE 2019 PLAYBOOK

摘要

Under the umbrella of a much gloomier growth outlook, Plan B is dovish. It is a stance induced by poor economic data, lower growth forecasts, US-China trade tensions and political strife, including the vexed question of Brexit. All factors that have on occasions led to disorderly and volatile markets. Spooked by economic, political and geopolitical headwinds, and by subsidiary fears that monetary authorities would fail to change direction and potentially make things worse, US stocks led global markets into a tailspin in December. Bouts of volatility built on unpredictability followed the March FOMC meeting, short-lived three-month T-bill to 10-year T-note inversion (signalling a recession to some) and the poor March Germany manufacturing PMI, which pushed 10-year Bunds into negative yield territory.