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DYNAMIC CHANGE FORECAST OF THE SALINE-ALKALI FARMLAND BASED ON THE NON-EQUAL TIME INTERVAL GREY MODEL

机译:基于非平均时间间隔灰色模型的盐碱地动态变化预测

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摘要

Salinization has become one of the most important questions about farmland in China. How to monitor and forecast the salinization trend of the farmland and to carry out valid prevention and cure measures is important for farmland protection in China. The grey model based on the grey system theory is different from the traditional regression forecast analysis. It doesn't need a large number of original data and doesn't require complex computation. It can avoid the fatal weakness of insufficient data and avoid the subjective factors on the forecast precision. By the mechanism of the grey model, the internal rules of the change of the saline-alkali farmland can be scientifically forecasted. It is usually executed with the mode of GM (1, 1). However, the GM (1,1) requires the equal time interval original data sequence. The saline-alkali degree always can't be monitored with the equal time interval. So, a new model by integrating the GM (1,1) with the least square method is proposed. With the new model, the original data sequence, the intervening results and the final forecast results are modified with the least square method. The results showed that the forecast precision was improved with the new model.
机译:盐碱化已成为中国农田最重要的问题之一。如何监测和预测农田盐碱化趋势,采取有效的防治措施,对我国农田保护至关重要。基于灰色系统理论的灰色模型不同于传统的回归预测分析。它不需要大量原始数据,也不需要复杂的计算。它可以避免数据不足的致命缺陷,并避免主观因素影响预测精度。通过灰色模型的机理,可以科学预测盐碱地耕地变化的内在规律。通常以GM(1,1)模式执行。但是,GM(1,1)需要等时间间隔的原始数据序列。始终不能以相等的时间间隔监视盐碱度。因此,提出了一种将最小二乘法与GM(1,1)集成的新模型。使用新模型,可以使用最小二乘法修改原始数据序列,中间结果和最终预测结果。结果表明,新模型提高了预测精度。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Intelligent automation and soft computing》 |2013年第3期|253-261|共9页
  • 作者

    HUAJI ZHU; HUARUI WU;

  • 作者单位

    Beijing Research Center for Information Technology in Agriculture, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097 P.R. China,Key Laboratory for Information Technologies in Agriculture, Beijing 100097 P.R. China;

    Beijing Research Center for Information Technology in Agriculture, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097 P.R. China,Key Laboratory for Information Technologies in Agriculture, Beijing 100097 P.R. China;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Farmland; Saline-alkali Degree; Forecast; Non-Equal Time Interval; Grey Model;

    机译:农田;盐碱度;预测;非等时间隔;灰色模型;

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