Risky zones in urban area: an analysis using fault tree and risk matrix method

摘要

Road network type and its surroundings play an important role in road traffic accidents. This heterogeneity is due to the diverse nature of the driving population, traffic characteristics, weather conditions, roadside features, and design considerations. Previous research investigation has found different factors associated with accidents, but there is a lack of research in the area-wise categorization of risk factors. In this prospect, the present study endeavors to find factors responsible for the accident in various zones in Nagpur City. And to identify the pattern and impact caused by the individual characteristics features on multiple zones. Overall, three types of zones have been selected based on accident risk level viz. high-risk zone, medium risk zone, and a low-risk zone: and represented as Zone-I, Zone-II, and Zone-III. The process of zone formation is performed in ArcGIS software using the kernel density estimator function. The accident data is obtained from the Nagpur traffic police accident database from 2016 to 2018. The fault tree analysis gave the risk factor. And risk matrix was employed to assess the risk level associated with each risk factor in a specific zone. The result shows that zone-I has more probability of a fatal crash at night-time than at daytime; Zone-II has more injury crash probability at day time. Zone-III is a low crash occurrence area but has a slightly more fatal crash probability at night-time. The average possibility of a fatal crash at night-time in zone-I is 2.97 times compared to that in the daytime.