An examination of the diffusion of prepaid mobile telephony in selected emerging markets and developing economies

摘要

Cellular phones have gained popularity in emerging and developing economies over the last two decades. In this study, we show that the phenomenon of falling prices over time is applicable to the diffusion of prepaid mobile phones. This article extends the logistic diffusion model to accommodate disadopters of the service category. Goodness of fit of the extended model is found superior to the original version, which does not consider disadoption. The empirical findings show that for the 12 countries considered in the analysis, the diffusion speeds and the disadoption rates are influenced by one marketing factor and three socioeconomic factors.