A Model for Hidden Behavior Prediction of Complex Systems Based on Belief Rule Base and Power Set

摘要

It is important to predict the hidden behavior of a complex system. In the existing models for predicting the hidden behavior, the hidden belief rule base (HBRB) is an effective model which can use qualitative knowledge and quantitative data. However, the frame of discernment (FoD) of HBRB which is composed of some states or propositions and the universal set including all states or propositions is not complete. The global ignorance and local ignorance cannot be considered at the same time, which may lead to the inaccurate forecasting results. To solve the problems, a new HBRB model named as PHBRB in which the hidden behavior is described on the FoD of the power set is proposed in this correspondence paper. Furthermore, by using the evidential reasoning rule as the inference tool of PHBRB, a new projection covariance matrix adaption evolution strategy is developed to optimize the parameters of PHBRB so that more accurate prediction results can be obtained. A case study of network security situation prediction is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the newly proposed method.