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Apparent recent trends in hydrologic response in permafrost regions of northwest Canada

机译:加拿大西北部多年冻土区水文响应的近期趋势

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Yukon air temperature trends have been observed to change over the last several decades with an increase in both summer and winter air temperatures. An assessment of streamflow response was carried out to determine if there are apparent trends in permafrost regions as a result of the observed temperature changes. Degrading permafrost places a greater reliance on the interaction between surface and subsurface processes. Annual mean, maximum and minimum flows were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test to statistically validate observed trends. Annual mean flows are observed to have slight positive trends over the last three decades within continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones, with variable results within sporadic permafrost regions. These results are generally in keeping with similar trends in annual precipitation, which has increased slightly. Though not generally statistically significant, annual peak flows have largely decreased within continuous permafrost regions, and lesser so within discontinuous regions. Results are variable within sporadic permafrost zones. These trends are likely associated with increased annual precipitation; however, it is conceivable that there may be increased infiltration amounts as a result of degrading permafrost. Winter low flows have experienced significant apparent changes over the last three decades. The greatest changes in winter low flows appear to be occurring within the continuous permafrost zone, where flows from the majority of sampled streams have increased. Winter low flows trends in streams within the discontinuous permafrost zone generally exhibit positive significant trends, but are more variable. Winter streamflow trends within the sporadic permafrost zone are not consistent.
机译:在过去的几十年里,随着夏季和冬季气温的升高,育空地区的气温趋势也发生了变化。进行了流量响应评估,以确定由于观测到的温度变化,永久冻土区是否存在明显的趋势。退化的永久冻土更加依赖地表和地下过程之间的相互作用。使用Mann-Kendall检验评估了年平均流量,最大流量和最小流量,以统计学方式验证观察到的趋势。在过去的三十年中,在连续和不连续的多年冻土带中,年平均流量有轻微的正向趋势,而在零星的多年冻土带中,结果却各不相同。这些结果通常与年降水量的类似趋势保持一致,后者略有增加。尽管通常没有统计学意义,但连续多年冻土区的年峰值流量已大大减少,而在不连续冻土区中的年峰值流量则较小。在零星的多年冻土带中,结果是可变的。这些趋势可能与年降水量增加有关;但是,可以认为由于永冻土的降解,渗透量可能会增加。在过去的三十年中,冬季的低流量发生了明显的明显变化。冬季低流量的最大变化似乎发生在连续的多年冻土带中,来自大部分采样流的流量增加了。不连续冻土带内冬季的低流量趋势通常显示出明显的正趋势,但变化更大。零星多年冻土带内的冬季水流趋势不一致。

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