Comparative analysis of predictive methods for drought durations: a case of monthly and annual streamflow droughts in Atlantic Canada

摘要

Methods based on the recursive probability, the extreme number theorem, and Markov chain (MC) concepts were applied to predict drought lengths (duration) on the standardized (termed as standardized hydrological index, SHI) sequences of monthly and annual river flows from Atlantic Canada. Results of the study indicated that the MC-based method is the most efficient, reliable and versatile method for predicting drought durations followed by the extreme-number-based method. The recursive-probability-based method was found to be computationally intensive and less efficient, although it provided a powerful means for calibrating the empirical plotting position formula needed in the MC-based method. The Weibull plotting position formula turned out to be a suitable measure of the exceedance probability in MC methodology for predicting drought lengths in Atlantic Canada. Based on results, it can be inferred that the MC-based method can be extended to MC2 and higher-order chains for predicting drought lengths on SHI sequences. The predictive capability of the extreme-number-theorem-based method is limited only to independent or weakly first-order persistent SHI sequences.EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR Q. Zhang