Contraction is the dominant commodity market theme. We use the Commitments of Traders (COT) data to identify swing trading opportunities. Swing highs and lows are the failed attempts of new specula-tively driven trends. COT data illustrates the battle between large speculators and commercial traders. Typically, the net and total positions of both groups grow as a directional move develops until the speculative space becomes overpopulated and the commercial traders' value-based outlook on their market is proven correct. This process has been ongoing in March, as 26 out of the 39 markets that we follow have moved into periods of contracting position sizes among the speculative and commercial trading population.
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