The future of compulsory schooling: Participant developed scenarios from a modified Delphi survey

摘要

In this paper we present five scenarios that describe preferred futures for the design of compulsory schooling. The work addresses the counterfactual research question: What if compulsory schooling was a 21 st century invention? and is informed by the research in anticipatory systems thinking. The expert advice evolved over multiple rounds of input using a modified Delphi approach. The scenario development round followed a consensus and dissensus process in the early stages. The creation of a series of preferred futures for compulsory schooling can be used by education leaders in states, provinces, and countries to create momentum for strategic change in the static structure of schooling that generally maintains industrial models of schooling. The combining of a modified Delphi process with scenario development can be used to present possible futures which can be contextualised, divergent, and used as a catalyst to create other preferred scenarios for a future based on a success-for-all paradigm.