Choices in the face of uncertainty: the international futures (Ifs) model

摘要

The International Futures (Ifs) modeling project has roots in both the world modeling pro- jects of the 1970s (including the early Club of Rome models) and the GLOBUS modeling project of the 1980s. It has, however, added extensive capabilities for helping students and analysts think about choices in the face of uncertainty. The third edition of the International futures book and computer simulation have extended the analysis horizon and enhanced analy- sis potential, with particular focus in two areas: (1) the possible transition towards sus- tainability in the twenty-first century and (2) sociopolitical change within countries and in the global system. Ifs is evolving from a global model to a 'global modeling system' that allows analysis of data and analytical relationships across a country-level database. This article reviews the evolution of Ifs and the current model. It concludes by discussing challenging issues in the contemporary world that may be explored by students of the future using the IFS model.