Towards a new technology future approach

摘要

In order to anticipate technological futures of Building Management Systems (BMS), many methods can be identified. However, people often focus on the results of these studies relating to new products. Undoubtedly it is easier to agree on conclusions of a study than on methods used to carry it out. Thus, answering several methodological issues, we develop a new technological future method named 'CLE' (complexity, logic, evolution). This one relies on three main ways to answer particularly the problems of complexity of any studied field, inaccuracy and uncertainty of available data, and representation of technological development. CLE leads to the developement of a two-level model. A microscopic level is based on biological metaphors to represent the evolution of populations of products. By a macroscopic approach, we call upon the dynamics of complex systems and fuzzy logic, which gives a representation of the environment of products. Then, the through link with the two levels in a global model simulates the relationships between the environment and the population of products. In order to illustrate this approach, we apply it with the modelization of BMS.