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Knowledge and the modelling of complex systems

机译:知识和复杂系统的建模

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摘要

This paper discusses the role of complex systems models as both embodiments and sources of knowledge in the context of strategic decision-making. Models are frequently seen as one way of gaining knowledge of the future. Advances in the simulation of complex adaptive systems enable models to increase knowledge of system behaviour, but may also indicate the limits of such knowledge. The relationship between models and knowledge is discussed in the context of a simulation of the telecommunications industry. It is shown that the 'knowledge' provided by models is multi-valued and highly dependent on context; not single-valued answers but rather a statement of options, which place limits on the extent to which control can be exercised. This pushes much of the decision-making back to higher cognitive levels where objectives and values dominate. By high-lighting the potential trade-offs in any decision, complexity science can ensure a real debate about what values should be, or are being, adopted by society.
机译:本文讨论了复杂系统模型在战略决策背景下作为实施例和知识来源的作用。模型通常被视为获取未来知识的一种方法。复杂自适应系统仿真的进步使模型能够增加对系统行为的了解,但也可能表明此类知识的局限性。模型和知识之间的关系是在电信行业的模拟环境中讨论的。结果表明,模型提供的“知识”是多值的,并且高度依赖于上下文。不是单值答案,而是选项说明,这限制了可以执行控制的程度。这将许多决策推回到了以目标和价值观为主导的更高认知水平。通过强调任何决策中的潜在权衡,复杂性科学可以确保就社会应该或应该采用什么价值进行真正的辩论。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Futures》 |2005年第7期|p.711-719|共9页
  • 作者

    Michael Lyons;

  • 作者单位

    Strategic Analysis and Research, BT exact Technologies, Antares Building 2/7, Adastral Park, Martlesham Heath, Ipswich IP5 3RE, UK;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 工业技术;
  • 关键词

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