Design beyond complexity: Possible futures-Prediction or design? (and techniques and tools to make it possible)

摘要

This paper is an attempt to discuss the concepts of complexity and complex social system and their relation with the concepts of design and design activity. It is argued that a design cannot appear as an emergent property out of such systems, since it presupposes intentionality. However, to a certain extent, complex (social) systems need to be governed by means of design. Even if design requires prediction, which in our opinion is impossible in strict sense in case of social systems, there are two important conditions for a "good design", namely, to look at the past, and to look at the future. After this general discussion, the paper provides a few suggestions on how to do the former without prejudices, and presents an effective technique for doing the latter without illusions.