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Tomorrow will die

机译:明天会死

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摘要

Human beings' resilience to extinction is much higher than what is usually imagined. Almost no single event, except a sudden burst of the planet, seems able to drive the species to death. However a chain of events such as those created by climate change or the intertwined threads of current trends, amplified by some inadequacy of human beings to cope with reality (inefficiency, apathy, underestimation, politician considerations, etc.), could challenge our survival. This paper aims to provide such a set of multiple events, interconnected or independent, evolving over a rather short period of time, 150 years. This period can seem unrealistic to drive to a plausible extinction. Yet this was a condition to set up a situation as realistic as possible, based on current facts and extrapolations. More or less 50 years in the timeline make no difference in the coherence of this evolution. The choice has been done to work out this scenario with the help of no new element, no radical rupture, nothing that would be unknown today, at least in theory. Thus, this future is a very possible one. Whether it is an about-to-happen one or not is left to the reader's judgement. Whether human beings will react this way in case it would happen is just our daily responsibility.
机译:人类的灭绝能力比通常想象的要高得多。除了突然爆发的行星外,几乎没有任何事件似乎能够将物种杀死。然而,诸如气候变化或当前趋势交织在一起的事件等一系列事件,可能由于人类对现实的不足(效率低下,冷漠,低估,政客考虑等)而加剧,这可能挑战我们的生存。本文旨在提供这样一组由相互关联或独立的多个事件组成的一组事件,这些事件在150年的较短时间内演变而来。这一时期似乎可能导致灭绝。但这是根据当前事实和推断尽可能建立现实的条件。时间轴上约有50年的时间,这种演变的连贯性没有任何区别。至少在理论上,已经选择了在没有新因素,没有剧烈破裂,今天没有什么未知的情况下解决这种情况。因此,这个未来是非常可能的。它是否是即将发生的取决于读者的判断。人类是否会以这种方式做出反应只是我们的日常责任。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Futures》 |2009年第10期|746-753|共8页
  • 作者

    Fabienne Goux-Baudiment;

  • 作者单位

    proGective, 16, rue Mouton-Duvemet, 75014 Paris, France;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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