Fuzzy meta association rules based on hierarchy theory based analysis of epidemic incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in children

摘要

To compare the application value of different statistical methods in the seasonal study of hand-foot mouth disease and provide scientific basis for seasonal prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease. The method is, taking hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Wuhan as an example, the seasonal trend of HFMD was analyzed by means of epidemic curve, seasonal index, coefficient of variation, circular distribution and scanning statistics. Variation coefficient describes the variability of epidemic intensity in a certain period of time. The high variability indicates the alternation of the intensity of disease, but the low degree of variation may mean common high or low incidence. Although the epidemic curve and seasonal index can directly describe the seasonal trend of HFMD, the lack of statistical inference may be affected by random errors. The circular distribution can quantitatively detect the high incidence date and period of HFMD with statistical significance, but it may lose its practical significance because of the long span of high incidence period. The scanning statistics take into account the space-time information of hand, foot and mouth disease. After correcting the trend of simple time variation and intraweek effect, a more accurate, stable and practical high incidence period can be detected, which has an advantage in discussing the seasonal trend of hand, foot and mouth disease. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.