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Modeling Tree Mortality in Low- to Medium-Density Uneven-Aged Hardwood Stands Under a Selection System Using Generalized Estimating Equations

机译:选择系统下的中低密度不均一硬木林木死亡率的广义估计方程建模

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摘要

Tree mortality was modeled through time in uneven-aged northern hardwood stands managed under a selection system using long-term remeasurement data. Two models were fitted and compared: a traditional logistic regression model that predicted the probability of individual tree mortality over discrete time periods and a logistic regression model estimated using generalized estimating equations (GEEs) to account for autocorrelation in the longitudinal data. Model evaluation was based on the mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, variance of prediction errors, and mean square error calculated using an independent validation data set. The GEE model produced smaller evaluation statistics, especially for the smaller diameter classes. The predicted probability of mortality from the two models was compared with the observed mortality across 5-cm diameter classes for two time periods. Our results indicate that the GEE model was better able to capture the change in the probability of mortality over time, especially for the smaller diameter classes, than the more traditional logistic model. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
机译:在长期选择的北部硬木林分中,通过长期重测数据对树木死亡率进行建模。拟合并比较了两个模型:一个传统的逻辑回归模型,用于预测离散时间段内个别树木死亡的可能性;以及一个逻辑回归模型,该模型使用广义估计方程(GEE)进行估计,以解决纵向数据中的自相关问题。模型评估基于平均预测误差,平均绝对预测误差,预测误差的方差和使用独立验证数据集计算出的均方误差。 GEE模型产生的评估统计数据较小,尤其是对于较小直径的类别。将这两个模型的预计死亡率与在两个时间段内在5厘米直径等级上观察到的死亡率进行了比较。我们的结果表明,与更传统的逻辑模型相比,GEE模型能够更好地捕获死亡率随时间的变化,尤其是对于较小直径的类别。 [出版物摘要]

著录项

  • 来源
    《Forest Science》 |2009年第4期|p.343-351|共9页
  • 作者单位

    Diane Kiernan, Department of Forest and Natural Resources Management, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry (SUNY-ESF), Syracuse, NY 13210- Phone: (315) 470-6577, Fax: (315) 470-6535, dhkiernan@esf.edu. Eddie Bevilacqua, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY - ebevilacqua@esf.edu. Ralph D. Nyland, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY - rnyland@mailbox.syr.edu. Lianjun Zhang, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY - lizhang@esf.edu.Acknowledgments: The research was supported by Northeastern States Research Cooperative.Manuscript received February 22, 2008, accepted April 24, 2009 Copyright © 2009 by the Society of American Foresters,;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
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  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 13:46:03

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