Compatibility of Stand Basal Area Predictions Based on Forecast Combination

摘要

Stand growth and yield models include whole-stand models, individual-tree models, and diameter-distribution models. Based on the growth data of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) in Beijing, forecast combination was used to adjust predicted stand basal areas from these three types of models. The forecast combination method combines information and disperses errors from different models to improve forecast performance. In this study, weights of the three model estimates used in the forecast combination estimator were determined by the optimal weight method. Results showed that the forecast combination method provided overall better predictions of stand basal area than the three types of models. It also improved the compatibility of stand basal area growth predicted from models of different resolutions and provided a method for integration of stand basal area. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]