EXPECT A GREAT FOURTH QUARTER

摘要

Having never seen it described makes me love it more: Among the very least known stock market anomalies is the awesome Midterm Election Year Fourth-Quarter Effect. Since 1925 the S&P 500 has risen in 19 of 22 midterm-election-year fourth quarters. That's a whopping 86.4%. One of the other three wasn't negative-but 0.0%. Hence it's been negative only 9.1% of fourth quarters. One was merely -5%. Only once was it down much, -16.4% way back in 1930-during the crash. You have to love it. Positive fourth quarters aren't necessarily huge. They've varied from 2% to 21.3%, averaging 9.5%. But a 9.5% Quarter ain't chicken feed.