Black Elephants and Black Swans of Nuclear Safety

摘要

We highlighted two classes of high impact events: completely unexpected events that are only predictable in hindsight (black swans), and potential events that are ignored despite existing evidence (black elephants). We suggested some common causes of black elephants and how these can be alleviated. It is unlikely that all black elephants can be removed, and we still have to deal with the black swans. We proposed that safety engineering principles that reduce the potential for catastrophic outcomes should be applied more thoroughly and holistically in order to reduce the impact of vicious black swans.