A New Method for AERMOD with Missing Sounding Data

摘要

In this article, an experimental formula method of using surface observation data to estimate the potential temperature profile for AERMICCAMS/EPA Regulatory Model Improvement Committee) Model (AERMOD) was developed. This method's validity was tested by comparison of hourly averaged concentrations predicted by AERMOD for four field sites (Cliffy Creek, Bowline, Lovett, and Westvaco) datasets in US in the convective boundary layer (CBI) using estimated potential temperature and sounding data. When predicting the hourly averaged concentrations, the CBL were divided into convective and near neutral cases based on the values of Monin-Obukhov length (I). Q-Q plots and some statistical measures such as Pearson Correlation Coefficient (R), Fractional Bias (FB), Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE), Mean Bias Error (MBE), Index of Agreement (D) and Robust Highest Concentration (RHC) were used. The statistical results and Q-Q plots indicated that the concentrations in the CBL using estimated potential temperature had a good relationship and agreement, a little bias, accepted predicted highest concentrations with those derived from sounding data. The statistical results and Q-Q plots in the neutral case were better than those in the convective case. We can conclude that this method was feasible in planetary boundary layer (PBL) for AERMOD.