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Climate change policy after Kyoto: Blueprint for a realistic approach

机译:京都议定书之后的气候变化政策:切实可行的蓝图

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This book outlines a 'hybrid' climate change policy that has been designed to maximise the advantages of taxing and permit systems, and to avoid the pitfalls of the Kyoto Protocol in a future of climate uncertainty. While the authors can hardly be blamed for preceding the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Report, the book assumes that the science of climate change is far less certain than it actually is, and even than it was in 2002, when the book was published. Certainly, few climate change scientists would now agree with the authors that 'it is a substantial overstatement of current scientific knowledge to conclude that anthropogenic warming has been detected in historical data' (p. 29). And although the authors begin with the premise that the range of scientific uncertainty is too great to justify immediate action to reduce emissions by draconian measures, by the end they state that 'the longer the world waits for an effective and flexible climate change policy, the worse the climate problem becomes and the more expensive it will be to address it' (p. 107).
机译:本书概述了一种“混合型”气候变化政策,旨在最大程度地提高税收和许可制度的优势,并避免在未来气候不确定的情况下避免《京都议定书》的弊端。虽然几乎不能怪作者在政府间气候变化专门委员会的第四份报告之前发表,但该书假设气候变化科学远没有真正确定,甚至比2002年出版时还不确定。当然,现在几乎没有气候变化科学家会同意作者的观点,即“得出结论认为在历史数据中已发现人为变暖的事实是对当前科学知识的高估”(第29页)。尽管作者以科学不确定性的范围太大为前提,以至于不能采取严厉措施立即采取行动来减少排放,但他们最后指出,“世界等待有效和灵活的气候变化政策的时间越长,气候问题变得越糟,解决该问题的成本就越高”(第107页)。

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