SCIENTIFIC CERTAINTY THRESHOLDS IN FISHERIES MANAGEMENT: A RESPONSE TO A CHANGING CLIMATE

摘要

Fisheries in federal waters have long been regulated on an as-needed basis. Many requirements under the Magnuson-Stevens Act are only triggered once a fishery is determined to be "overfished." This reactive management method is troubling because of the vast levels of uncertainty as to stock population, recruitment rates, and other measures of health. Furthermore, fish stocks in many areas are already being affected by climate change, compounding the existing uncertainties as to their health and resilience. In response to the uncertainty as to health of the fish stocks, compounded by the additional uncertainty posed by climate change, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council recently closed the Arctic Management Area to commercial fishing. The Council is arguably without the authority to preemptively close the Arctic Management Area without providing specific benchmarks and a timeline for re-opening the fisheries because the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act does not favor preemptive measures or require any level of scientific certainty. Additionally, while international suggestions for regulation of fisheries are increasingly more precautionary, they have not yet contemplated the closure of a fishery due to scientific uncertainty. The Council determined, of its own accord, that some level of scientific certainty of the health and resilience offish stocks should be required prior to the exploitation of fish stocks. The Council's determination that a scientific certainty threshold should be met prior to exploitation should be a federal requirement of all fisheries to ensure the continued health and vitality of this crucial resource.