LIMITS TO COMMUNITY-BASED ADAPTATION? THE IMPLICATIONS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE FOR THE COASTAL BELT OF BANGLADESH

摘要

The coastal belt of Bangladesh is the site of many community-based adaptation programs that are responding to problems such as waterlogging, salinity intrusion, and increasing storm and cyclone severity. But what are the implications of sea-level rise on this region for the sus-tainability of these projects in the long term? Sea-level rise will result in more coastal flooding under ambient conditions and even more so in the event of storm surges. One prominent 2003 study suggests that a 1 meter rise in sea level would inundate 18 percent of Bangladesh's total land, directly threatening 11 percent of the country's population, while a 2000 World Bank report suggests such a rise would flood 15-20 percent of the land mass and displace 20 million people, mainly from the southern coastal areas. These projections are very possible by the end of this century, with recent studies that factor in glacial melt suggesting rises of 0.8 to 2 metersby 2100.