INTEGRATING CONCEPTS AND MODELS FROM DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS WITH LAND USE CHANGE IN THE TROPICS

摘要

In this paper I undertake a preliminary assessment for the tropics of the relation of economic development, meaning in general increases in economic activity as measured by e.g. GDP, and its normal biophysical corollaries of increased resource use and land use change. I also examine each in relation to the intellectual concepts that underlie and guide what is commonly called economic development. Because most of the development literature is derived from economics or other social sciences, and focuses almost entirely on lifting people's standards of living as measured in monetary units, very little examines the per unit biophysical requirements of that development, including energy or other resource use requirements, land use change or other environmental consequences of development plans. In addition there seems to be insufficient connection between those who create economic development plans and those who undertake empirical biophysical assessments to determine whether the development plan has worked or can possibly work. The problem is deeper: there exists a series of models used in the development literature that have been used to encourage and guide development. These models have received very little scrutiny as to either their efficacy or their societal or environmental impacts until quite recently. When this has been done the models have been shown to fail miserably. It is time to develop a new model of development that synthesizes conventional economic, biophysical economic and social aspects, and that is based on the scientific method rather than on perceived wisdom. This model must also take into account population growth, issues of who wins and who looses from economic development, and the implications of the incipient peak in global oil production.