Does line loss broaden the deviation between the added value of industry and the industrial electricity consumption in China?

摘要

Studies have shown that industrial structure (IS) adjustment, climate factors, energy intensity, etc. factors are the reasons causing the deviation between the growth rate of industrial value added (IVA) and electricity consumption of industry (Ele) in China. However, no one researches whether line loss (LL), calculated in industrial electricity consumption in China, is one of the reasons contributing to the deviation. In order to thoroughly figure out what is the cause of the deviation, theoretical method, correlation analysis, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and an error correction model (ECM) have been undertaken in the paper. Experimental results are as follows: (1) LL fluctuates violently in accordance with temperature, while IVA is not; (2) the correlation between IVA and Ele becomes stronger, if LL is eliminated from Ele; (3) both in the long-run and short-run equation of ARDL model, IS is the first driver of Ele, followed by LL and IVA; (4) compared with International Energy Agency and based on the experimental results, the practice statistics of LL in Ele is not reasonable in China; (6) policies for promoting the upgrading of the internal industrial structure and for improving the statistical method of electricity consumption in China are proposed, finally.