Building fragility curves of sliding failure of concrete gravity dams integrating natural and epistemic uncertainties

摘要

In the majority of engineering problems, two kinds of uncertainty are generally considered: natural uncertainty, resulting from the inherent variability in natural processes, and epistemic uncertainty, linked to lack of knowledge. When performing a quantitative risk analysis, considering both types of uncertainty separately before integrating them when performing risk calculations, allows a better understanding on how both types of uncertainty influence risk results.