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THE EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGICAL IMPROVEMENT ON CAPACITY EXPANSION FOR UNCERTAIN EXPONENTIAL DEMAND WITH LEAD TIMES

机译:提前期不确定的指数需求的技术改进对容量扩展的影响

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摘要

We formulate a model of capacity expansion that is relevant to a service provider for whom the cost of capacity shortages would be considerable but difficult to quantify exactly. Due to demand uncertainty and a lead time for adding capacity, not all shortages are avoidable. In addition, technological innovations will reduce the cost of adding capacity but may not be completely predictable. Analytical expressions for the infinite horizon expansion cost and shortages are optimized numerically. Sensitivity analyses allow us to determine the impact of technological change on the optimal timing and sizes of capacity expansions to account for economies of scale, the time value of money and penalties for insufficient capacity.
机译:我们制定了与服务提供商相关的容量扩展模型,对于这些服务提供商来说,容量短缺的成本将是可观的,但难以准确量化。由于需求的不确定性和增加容量的交货时间,并非所有的短缺都是可以避免的。此外,技术创新将减少增加容量的成本,但可能无法完全预测。通过数值优化了无限层扩展成本和短缺的解析表达式。敏感性分析使我们能够确定技术变革对产能扩张的最佳时机和规模的影响,以考虑规模经济,资金时间价值和产能不足的惩罚。

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