Applications of data analysis techniques for oil production prediction

摘要

This paper describes two data analysis techniques adopted in a Decision Support System (DSS) that aids users in predicting oil production of an infill well. The system generates predictions in the form of a possible range of cumulative production and length of production life of an infill well. The system also shows the worst and best case scenarios based on different production curves so that the expert can examine the plots of predicted production rates for each existing well and decide which model gives the best fit. The production curve of each individual well was mathematically modeled so that production values beyond the historical data can be produced. Decline curve estimation and neural network approaches were adopted for data analysis in the system. The system was tested with data from two groups of wells from two different fields in Saskatchewan, Canada. Observations on the suitable duration that the historical data set should cover and a comparison among different curve estimation and neural network models are presented.