Using the BCD model for risk analysis: An influence diagram based approach

摘要

In this paper, we are interested in addressing risk analysis. We propose an influence diagram-based approach that focuses on a Benefit, Cost, Deficit (BCD) model. The BCD model is proposed for studying the intentional deviant behaviors of human operators in a system. In this model, the consequences of human actions are analyzed with respect to three parameters: benefit, cost and deficit. Our approach aims to expand the BCD model by integrating factors, such as those related to the organization of the system in question, that influence human operator actions. In addition, the approach considers multiple criteria that are related, for example, to safety and productivity. To build a model that evaluates the risk induced by human actions in a system and analyzes the impact of the different factors, we use influence diagrams. Influence diagrams are probabilistic graphical models that can deal with uncertainty and with incomplete and imprecise information. Influence diagrams also represent the interdependencies between the different variables of the studied problem. In addition, contrary to Bayesian networks, influence diagrams can rank a set of actions by providing information on which action carries the greatest risk or the most benefits. We applied this approach to a case study of an industrial rotary press, but it can also be used in other problems and sectors.