Development of a GHG-mitigation oriented inexact dynamic model for regional energy system management

摘要

Multiple dynamics and uncertainties are involved in regional energy and greenhouse gas management (REGM) system, confronting decision makers during plan/policy makings. In this study, a greenhouse gas (GHG)-mitigation oriented inexact dynamic energy system management model (IFMP-REGM) is developed for a REGM system. The IFMP-REGM is a hybrid methodology of interval mathematical programming, fuzzy linear programming and multi-stage stochastic programming. It can not only handle uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, fuzzy sets and probability distributions, but also reflect dynamic variations of system conditions, particularly for large-scale multistage problems with sequential structures. The uncertain information can be incorporated within a multi-layer scenario tree; revised decisions are permitted in each time period based on the realized values of the uncertain events. The developed IFMP-REGM model was then applied to a hypothetical regional energy and GHG management system. The results indicate that the IFMP-REGM can effectively address complexities of various system uncertainties as well as dealing with multi-stage stochastic decision problems within energy systems.