A novel multi-stage fuzzy stochastic programming for electricity system structure optimization and planning with energy-water nexus: A case study of Tianjin, China

摘要

In this study, a novel multi-stage fuzzy stochastic programming (MSFSP) model was developed for regional energy system structure optimization and planning with energy-water nexus under multiple uncertainties. By cooperating the multistage stochastic programming and fuzzy theory, the developed model can deal with energy system planning problems under a mixture of probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainties. Fuzzy random scenarios are designed to express the uncertain future energy demand levels and vague decision maker's risk attitude. A MSFSP -based energy-water nexus system management model was applied to a practical energy system planning problem in an energy-intensive and water-stressed area, Tianjin, China. Results of optimal capacity expansion, power generation, and imported electricity strategies were obtained; meanwhile the water resource availability effects and decision makers' risk attitude were analyzed. It was found that water resource availability would be a significant factor in promoting local power structure and electricity generation in the future. More serious water resource deficiency would lead to reduce local coal-fired power capacity investment, while stimulate renewable energy development and increase imported electricity requirement. All above can facilitate decision supports for regional energy system planning from a comprehensive energy-water nexus perspective with more sustainable and risk-aversion manners.