Long-term planning methodology for improving wood biomass utilization

摘要

The insufficiently developed forest management system is often followed by undeveloped forest resources supply chain and insufficient institutional support. These cause inefficient usage of fuel-wood as well as huge amounts of unused forest residues. In order to achieve optimal and long-term sustainable utilisation of biomass, an original methodology based on the interaction of mathematical optimization and backcasting approach has been developed.Mathematical optimization is used for both generation and consideration of techno-economic parameters of the forest biomass supply chain. Besides, backcasting allows generating solutions by involving stakeholders (considering ecological and social components).The methodology has been applied on a case study of maximization of forest residues utilisation at one municipality in Serbia. The possibilities of its utilisation under current conditions are minimal and the obstacles for significant biomass utilisation have been defined.Using the methodology, desired future and criteria (ecological acceptability, economical acceptability and reliability) that could be satisfied by desired future have been determined. Drivers and key uncertainties (political will and economic situation) to achieve the desired future have been also specified. Pathways and necessary changes have been developed in order to achieve a desirable future, which should provide maximal utilisation of available biomass. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.