Explicit cost-risk tradeoff for optimal energy management in CCHP microgrid system under fuzzy-risk preferences

摘要

In this paper, a fuzzy risk-explicit interval parameter programming (FREIPP) approach was provided for multiple energy supply and demand management in microgrid system under uncertainties. The FREIPP method integrates risk-explicit interval linear programming and fuzzy theory within a general framework. It can tackle fuzzy and interval uncertainties in terms of various cost coefficients, forecasted load demand, decision maker's risk attitude and other uncertainties in microgrid system management. Compared with traditional interval parameter programming, the proposed method has distinct advantages in minimizing the system cost and risk simultaneously and providing more risk explicit solutions with the regard of obscure risk preference of decision maker. The FREIPP approach was successfully applied in a microgrid system with combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) generation for three types of decision maker (i.e. defensive, neutral and aggressive). The obtained results indicated that the proposed FREIPP approach could provide optimal operation strategies with explicit cost-risk tradeoff information for decision maker when facing multiple complex uncertainties. Furthermore, it could help decision maker with different risk tolerance select desired optimal risk-aversion strategies, which is more realistic in real-world decision making process. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.