Drought risk assessment: Towards drought early warning system and sustainable environment in western Iran

摘要

Prolonged drought is considered as a creeping natural hazard, which has created a financial burden and unsustainable environment in Iran. Moreover, the effect of drought phenomenon in rural areas is more extensive, causing significant challenges to the rural economy in general and agricultural production in particular. A common strategy to manage drought is based on crisis management (ex-ante). However, for effective drought management, risk management seems to be more in line with drought early warning systems. This quantitative study used risk assessment, which is the function of two elements such as hazard (SPI and SDI indices) and vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity). This study aims to build the foundations for drought early warning systems in limited resource areas such as Kermanshah Township in the northwestern part of Iran. The population of this study comprised of wheat farmers in which 293 farmers were selected using multistage cluster sampling method. In the next step, the drought risk map for Kermanshah Township was developed, which revealed that the majority of villages are at intense environmental risk. The result of this study has implications for drought management practitioners. For example, the results can aid policymakers in the design of an early warning system in order to reduce risk and thus empower farmers toward resilient farming.