Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis

摘要

An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance-based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so-called 'power law' model, which is linear in log-log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these 'exact' hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance-based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi-analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi-analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed-form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the 'exact' numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate.