Modeling of Global Climate Variations in the 20th-23rd Centuries with New RCP Scenarios of Anthropogenic Forcing

摘要

Climate change is one of the main global problems. In this paper we use the global climatic model developed at the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russ an Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) [1-4], to estimate the variations in the characteristics of the Earth's climatic system in the 20th- 23rd centuries accounting for the anthropogenic impact according to the modern Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP). The RCP scenarios present a new step after the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) used in the international project for comparing the CMIP3 models and the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report [5].