Dynamics of forest fires and climate in Ilmen nature reserve, 1948-2013

摘要

This paper considers the impact of climatic factors on the forest fire rate in Ilmen State Reserve based on 66 years of direct observation data for 1948-2013. This period was marked by a gradual annual increase in the number of recorded fires in the reserve. The higher fire rate is generally related to lengthening of the fire season and more frequent fires in the spring and summer-early autumn periods. We did not obtain sufficient evidence to verify a relation of the higher fire rate to climate changes. The average monthly and seasonal weather conditions can be involved to explain only some causes of the interannual fire rate variability. The observed changes in some climatic characteristics could have contributed to an increase in the fire rate, while others could have reduced it.