Testing for linear vector autoregressive dynamics under multivariate generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity

摘要

In this paper, we propose a fixed design wild bootstrap procedure to test parameter restrictions in vector autoregressive models, which is robust in cases of conditionally heteroskedastic error terms. The wild bootstrap does not require any parametric specification of the volatility process and takes contemporaneous error correlation implicitly into account. Via a Monte Carlo investigation, empirical size and power properties of the method are illustrated for the case of white noise under the null hypothesis. We compare the bootstrap approach with standard ordinary least squares (OLS)-based, weighted least squares (WLS) and quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) approaches. In terms of empirical size, the proposed method outperforms competing approaches and achieves size-adjusted power close to WLS or QML inference. A White correction of standard OLS inference is satisfactory only in large samples. We investigate the case of Granger causality in a bivariate system of inflation expectations in France and the United Kingdom. Our evidence suggests that the former are Granger causal for the latter while for the reverse relation Granger non-causality cannot be rejected.