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In praise of partially interpretable predictors

机译:赞美部分可解释的预测因子

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Often there is an uninterpretable model that is statistically as good as, if not better than, a successful interpretable model. Accordingly, if one restricts attention to interpretable models, then one may sacrifice predictive power or other desirable properties. A minimal condition for an interpretable, usually parametric, model to be better than another model is that the first should have smaller mean‐squared error or integrated mean‐squared error. We show through a series of examples that this is often not the case and give the asymptotic forms of a variety of interpretable, partially interpretable, and noninterpretable methods. We find techniques that combine aspects of both interpretability and noninterpretability in models seem to give the best results.
机译:通常存在一个不可诠释的模型,统计上和一个成功的可解释模型不好。因此,如果一个人限制对可解释模型的注意,则可以牺牲预测力或其他期望的性质。可解释的最小条件,通常是参数,模型,以优于另一个模型,是第一个应该具有较小的平均误差或集成均方误差。我们通过一系列示例展示了这通常不是这种情况,并给出了各种可解释,部分可解释的和不可替换的方法的渐近形式。我们发现在模型中相结合的技术以及在模型中的不合理性的方面似乎提供了最佳结果。

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