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Application of International Freight Simultaneous Transportation Equilibrium Model to Sultanate of Oman

机译:国际货运同步运输均衡模型在阿曼苏丹国的应用

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An implementation of the International Freight Simultaneous Transportation Equilibrium Model (IFSTEM) that developed in United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), to the goods trade through the ports and lands of Sultanate of Oman is presented. Although some socio-economic variables, which are not available, were required for IFSTEM model calibration, some reasonable assumptions were made and it was good enough to draw the following main findings: the proposed alternative enhancement scenarios were 4 nested scenarios, i.e., each scenario included the previous one plus an additional enhancement. Scenario 1 involved reducing the number of documents from 8 to 4, and scenario 2 involved scenarios 1 plus reducing the time for port and terminal handling to 1 day (instead of 2 days for imports and 3 days for exports as estimated for 2012 by the World Bank trading across borders report 2013). Scenario 3 involved scenarios 1 and 2 plus reducing the international maritime transport times and costs by 20% (i.e., to become equal to that of the United Arab Emirate (UAE) according to the application assumptions), and scenario 4 involved scenarios 1 and 2 plus reducing the international maritime transport times and costs by 40% (i.e., to become 20% less than that of UAE according to the application assumptions). These 4 enhancement scenarios were analyzed against and compared with scenario (0), i.e., the reference “Do nothing” scenario.The prediction results revealed that the estimated international trade flows (imports, exports and re-exports) for Oman for scenarios 4 would increase by more than 504% by 2040 ( i.e., around 187 million tons) compared to the present situation of the base year 2012 (i.e., around 37 million tons). This increase would represent around 70% compared to the “do nothing” reference scenario by the year 2040 (i.e., around 110 million tons) assuming that the average increase of international trade flows in the “do nothing” case would be around 4% annually during the analysis period from 2012 to 2040. The predictions of average total trip time and total cost per ton revealed an estimated decrease for scenario 4 compared to the reference scenario by around 25% and 20% respectively. These results are internally consistent and represented reasonably significant improvements compared to the “Do nothing” reference scenario.
机译:提出了在联合国西亚(ESCWA)的国际货运同步运输均衡模型(IFSEM)的实施,通过阿曼苏丹国港和土地的货物贸易。虽然IFstem Model校准需要一些不可用的社会经济变量,但是,制造了一些合理的假设,足以绘制以下主要发现:所提出的替代增强情景是4个嵌套情景,即每种情况包括前一个加上额外的增强。情景1涉及减少8到4的文档数量,以及场景2所涉及的场景1加上港口和终端处理到1天的时间(而不是20天,而且2012年估计为2012年的出口3天银行交易跨越边界报告2013)。情景3涉及的情景1和2加上国际海上运输时间和成本减少20%(即,根据申请假设的申请假设等于阿拉伯联合酋长国(阿联酋)的成本),方案4涉及场景1和2加上国际海上运输时间和成本减少40%(即,根据申请假设的含量低于阿联酋的20%)。与情景(0)进行分析并与方案进行分析,即,参考“不做”情景的分析。预测结果表明,对于阿曼的估计国际贸易流量(进出口,进出口)的情景4将与2012年基数(即大约3700万吨)的现状相比,2040年(即约187亿吨)增加了504%以上。与第2040年(即大约1.1亿吨)的“无数”参考情景相比,这一增长约为70%(即大约1.1亿吨),假设国际贸易流量的平均增幅在“无所作为”案件中的平均增加将每年约为4%在2012年至2040年的分析期间。平均旅行时间和每吨总成本的预测显示,与参考场景分别为约25%和20%的参考场景,估计降低。这些结果是内部一致的,与“无所作为”参考场景相比,代表了合理的改进。

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