Cause Mechanism Study to Human Factors in Maritime Accidents: Towards a Complex System Brittleness Analysis Approach

摘要

Human factor is becoming the primary cause of maritime accidents in recent years. The key to prevent accidents is to understand the accident causing mechanism of human error and the weakest link of human error system. Based on a large quantity of research of human errors in maritime accidents, by using complex system brittleness theory, a human error brittle model of complex system based on cellular automaton is built to analyze the internal brittle link of the system. By researching the influence degree of human error factors to the whole system, relevant accident control strategies could be proposed. The paper will provide a new method to research accident causing mechanism of human error.