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Possibility of the modelling of electricity production from hydropower

机译:建立水力发电模型的可能性

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In hydropower plants benefits depends on available flow. The paper presents a hybrid model for forecasting the operation of a hydropower plant, including the production of electricity. The possibility of mathematical modeling was chosen to show connections between observed in the past hydrological conditions (available flow) and energy deliver in the future. The available flow which is not enough for start turbines was forecasting by logistic regression model. The opposite situation when the flow starts turbine to produce energy, regression models (the support vector machines SVM, random forest RF, k nearest neighbour k-NN) were used. Results from hybrid model were compared with chosen data-mining methods. The possibility of forecasting of the length of periods when hydropower plant will be working could be very useful. It provides the prognosis of energy value which could be produced from hydropower plant. From the investors’ point of view the economic justification for the execution of the project based on the future energy producing could be a main criteria to realize or buy/sell hydropower plant. Also the secondary importance could be a possibility of planning review and maintenance work. Knowledge of power plant working periods could be a base for assessing a potential production from hydropower plant.
机译:在水力发电厂中,收益取决于可用流量。本文提出了一种用于预测水力发电厂运行(包括电力生产)的混合模型。选择数学模型的可能性是为了显示在过去的水文条件(可用流量)中观测到的与将来的能量输送之间的联系。通过逻辑回归模型预测了不足以启动涡轮的可用流量。当流动启动涡轮机产生能量时,情况相反,使用了回归模型(支持向量机SVM,随机森林RF,k最近邻k-NN)。将混合模型的结果与选定的数据挖掘方法进行了比较。预测水力发电厂将要运行的时间长度的可能性非常有用。它提供了可以从水力发电厂产生的能源价值的预测。从投资者的角度来看,根据未来的能源生产来执行项目的经济理由可能是实现或购买/出售水力发电厂的主要标准。次要的重要性也可能是计划审查和维护工作的可能性。对电厂工作时间的了解可以作为评估水电厂潜在产量的基础。

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