气候变化对赣江流域洪水频率的影响分析

摘要

本文利用最新的IPCC第五次评估报告AR5发布的BCC-CSM1.1数据与SDSM统计降尺度方法耦合驱动新安江水文模型，对气候变化情景下赣江流域未来洪水的变化趋势进行分析和探讨。结果表明，RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下洪水量级相对于基准期分别减小15%、9%和11%左右。三种情景下，未来不同时期的洪水均值、最大值和最小值的洪水重现期在基准期下均有不同程度的减小，其中最大值洪水减小幅度最大，1000年一遇洪水仅相当于基准期100年一遇，150年一遇洪水仅相当于基准期15年一遇。 The Xinanjiang hydrological model was driven by the SDSM statistical downscaled BCC-CSM1.1 outputs, which were released in the latest IPCC fifth assessment report AR5 to explore flood fre-quency changes of the Ganjiang basin under future climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the averages of flood magnitude with different return periods under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are reduced by 15%, 9% and 15% relative to the baseline period, respectively. The return periods of average, maximum and minimum floods of future different periods reduce in some extents. The annual maximum flood reduces remarkably; a design flood of 1000-year (or 150-year) return period under future scenario is equal to that of 100-year (or 15-year) under the baseline period.