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IDENTIFICATION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREME RAINFALLS DISTRIBUTION IN MALANG RESIDENCE | Science Publications

机译:玛琅居民区极端降雨分布的鉴定与鉴定科学出版物

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> Extreme rainfalls often occur everywhere just in a moment, very difficult to be anticipated and produce very detrimental impact to the environment and human society. Floods and landslides are influenced by high variability of extreme rainfalls, especially in the watershed area for floods and the hills as well as mountains for landslides, such as in Malang Residence, East Java, Indonesia as a case study in this study. The prediction tools for determining location and time of the next extreme rainfalls event will occur are required. The behavior of extreme rainfalls measured on one or several stations rain gauge could be approximated by Generalized Pareto (GP) Distribution. The prediction tools must be able to identify and characterize parameters of the GP Distribution such as shape and scale parameters over the entire area. Shape parameter of GP distribution has associated with characteristics of extreme rainfalls distributions. To identify characteristics of shape parameter on each station and their similarity, an algorithm to make a partition of shape parameters into several spatial clusters and investigate the type of distribution was proposed. In order to determine threshold value, mean residual life plot and stability of modified scale and shape parameters at a range of thresholds were used, Maximum Likelihood method was utilized to estimate parameter value and k-means method combined by Silhouette values to make the cluster of extreme rainfalls distribution. By using rainfalls data on twenty eight different stations rain gauge, the results showed that the proposed algorithm well performed and extreme rainfalls were heterogeneous with three type of GP distribution. In general, shape parameter values were negative and positive except on nine stations which were close to zero and were well partitioned by six clusters.
机译: >极端降雨经常在各个地方发生,这是很难预料的,并且会对环境和人类社会产生非常不利的影响。洪水和滑坡受极端降雨变化的影响,特别是在印度尼西亚东爪哇省玛琅住宅区的洪水和丘陵以及山体滑坡的分水岭地区。需要用于确定下一次极端降雨事件发生的位置和时间的预测工具。在一个或多个站点的雨量计上测得的极端降雨的行为可以通过广义帕累托(GP)分布来近似。预测工具必须能够识别和表征GP分布的参数,例如整个区域的形状和比例参数。 GP分布的形状参数与极端降雨分布的特征有关。为了识别每个站点上形状参数的特征及其相似性,提出了一种将形状参数划分为几个空间簇并研究分布类型的算法。为了确定阈值,使用平均剩余寿命图以及在一定阈值范围内修改后的比例尺和形状参数的稳定性,利用最大似然法估计参数值,然后将k均值方法与Silhouette值结合以构成极端降雨分布。通过使用28个不同站点雨量计上的降雨数据,结果表明,所提算法性能良好,极端降雨与三种GP分布均不相同。通常,形状参数值是负值和正值,除了在接近零且由六个聚类很好划分的九个测站上。

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