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Predicting Financial Distress in the Hong Kong Growth Enterprises Market from the Perspective of Financial Sustainability

机译:从财务可持续性的角度预测香港创业板市场的财务困境

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The present study, according to our knowledge, is the first attempt to establish a financial distress prediction model for a unique set of enterprises, which are the enterprises listed on the specialized Hong Kong Growth Enterprise Market. It also makes an analysis of corporate financial sustainability and its relationship to financial distress prediction. The logistic regression and jackknife method are used to test the predictability of various models with data drawn from the Growth Enterprise Market for the years 2000–2010. The study finds that a model that includes firm-specific financial variables, firm-specific non-financial variables and a macro-economic variable is a better predictor of financial distress than is a model that includes only the first set of variables or a model that includes the latter two sets of variables. It also finds that a model that includes the latter two sets of variables is a better predictor of financial distress than is a model that includes only the first set of variables. These findings are vital for financial sustainability, as investors, policymakers, auditors and stakeholders of this market would find the conclusions emanating from the study extremely useful.
机译:根据我们的知识,本研究是为一组独特的企业建立财务困境预测模型的首次尝试,这些企业是在专门的香港成长型企业市场上上市的企业。它还分析了公司财务的可持续性及其与财务困境预测的关系。逻辑回归和折刀法用于测试各种模型的可预测性,其方法是从2000-2010年的成长型企业市场中获取数据。研究发现,与仅包含第一组变量或仅包含第一组变量的模型相比,包含公司特定的财务变量,公司特定的非财务变量和宏观经济变量的模型可以更好地预测财务困境。包括后两组变量。它还发现,与仅包括第一组变量的模型相比,包括后两组变量的模型是更好的财务困境预测指标。这些发现对于财务可持续性至关重要,因为该市场的投资者,政策制定者,审计师和利益相关者会认为研究得出的结论非常有用。

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