Research on the Relationship between Entrepreneur Confidence Index and Producer Price Index Based on Quantile Granger Causality

摘要

This paper investigates the relationship between Entrepreneur Confidence Index and Producer Price Index (PPI) based on the mean and quantile Granger causality tests, using quarterly statistics data from 2005 to 2017. The results indicate that there is a unidirectional causality between entrepreneur confidence index and PPI index. At different quantile levels, entrepreneur confidence index of the previous period has different effects on the current PPI index. At lower quantiles, the causality from entrepreneur confidence index to PPI index is significant, while entrepreneur confidence index has little impact on PPI at higher quantiles. The estimates of at low quantiles are positive and significant. Therefore, improving entrepreneur investment confidence will have a certain positive impact on PPI.