Research on Decision Market Model of Public Decision Problems in the Context of Big Data

摘要

Decision markets are a method of community information gathering, so that market methods can be used to deal with public decision problems. The decision made by the decision makers can be shown as an equilibrium price. This thesis would design a Public Decision Markets model based on the principles of futures market. By using market principles to gather public decision preferences and use the equilibrium price to represent understandings. This model would be able to represent public intelligence level on public decision making. First transferring the binary decision market into a tradeable contract. Then make personal trading decisions under market environments. Finally, calculate the equilibrium price based on the total demand and total supply, providing a group consensus on the public decision issue. At the end of the thesis, it would provide cases where publicity tactics were decided upon the market acceptance. Proving this public decision model can effectively generate decision under big data context, while the tendency of group consensus was underestimated.