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Identifying and estimating net effects of treatments in sequential causal inference

机译:在顺序因果推论中识别和估计治疗的净效果

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Suppose that a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence an outcome of interest that occurs after the last treatment. Between treatments, there are time-dependent covariates that may be post-treatment variables of the earlier treatments and confounders of the subsequent treatments. In this article, we study identification and estimation of the net effect of each treatment in the treatment sequence. We construct a point parametrization for the joint distribution of treatments, time-dependent covariates and the outcome, in which the point parameters of interest are the point effects of treatments considered as single-point treatments. We identify net effects of treatments by their expressions in terms of point effects of treatments and express patterns of net effects of treatments by constraints on point effects of treatments. We estimate net effects of treatments through their point effects under the constraint by maximum likelihood and reduce the number of point parameters in the estimation by the treatment assignment condition. As a result, we obtain an unbiased consistent maximum-likelihood estimate for the net effect of treatment even in a long treatment sequence. We also show by simulation that the interval estimation of the net effect of treatment achieves the nominal coverage probability.
机译:假设分配了一系列处理以影响在最后一次处理之后发生的目标结果。在治疗之间,存在时间相关的协变量,这些变量可能是早期治疗的治疗后变量和后续治疗的混杂因素。在本文中,我们研究在治疗顺序中每种治疗的净效应的识别和估计。我们为治疗,时间相关协变量和结果的联合分布构造点参数化,其中感兴趣的点参数是被视为单点治疗的治疗的点效应。我们根据治疗的点效应来确定治疗的净效应,并通过约束治疗的点效应来表达治疗的净效应模式。我们通过最大似然约束下的点效应来估计治疗的净效应,并根据治疗分配条件减少估计中的点参数数量。结果,即使在较长的治疗顺序中,我们也能获得无偏见的最大似然估计值,从而得出治疗的净效果。我们还通过仿真显示,治疗净效果的区间估计可达到名义覆盖率。

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